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bowtochris is right, and so is pumaman83... but bowtochris is MORE right. 7 cmc for a 4/4 50% of the time is not good, also the fact that after a few flips the odds of winning consecutively becomes so absolutely miniscule that whether it hits 15 or 5675678t643467897668087654 is practically the same. and again you will only ever be able to hit that amount only 50% of the time!

Yes, Math teachers do play magic, we're actually pretty good at it. Believe it or not there is a LOT of math involved in magic, and that doesn't even include the statistics of the game.
Posted By: General_Kagemaro (10/27/2012 7:20:57 AM)


Not so bad in a Krark's Thumb deck. Even then, kitty should be 1 mana cheeper.
Posted By: A3Kitsune (4/28/2010 2:27:23 AM)


This guy's expected power and toughness are 5/5. So on average you are paying 7 mana for a 5/5, which is not a great deal.
Posted By: Saikuba (5/15/2012 1:18:19 PM)


Pumaman is right.

Chance of 4/4: 50%, or 0.5.

Now, if you only flipped once, then Crazed Firecat would indeed be 5/5 50% of the time. However, we are still flipping. Once the Cat is 5/5, another coin is flipped, with a 50/50 win-lose chance. Mathematically, that looks like this:
0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25
So yes, Crazed Firecat will be 5/5 25% of the time.

Repeat ad nauseum:
6/6: 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125, or 12.5%

I wish that Guest30238972472 (the guy with the ridiculously large number in his name who loves math) would come over here and put a stop to this nonsense.
Posted By: RJDroid (5/25/2012 1:33:47 PM)


It's the mtg card form of the St. Petersburg Lottery. For any finite integer, there is a nonzero chance that you'll win that many coin flips in a row. Therefore, the series of odds of getting X +1/+1 counters is divergent. It's expected p/t is infinite. This, however, isn't the whole story. The is diminishing marginal utility of power, and to a greater extent toughness. What's the difference between 20 power and 1000? What's the difference between 7 toughness and 1000? Not much. If we consider coin flips above 16 in a row as if they were functionally identical to each other, the expected power is ~19.000015.
Posted By: bowtochris (8/29/2012 9:57:17 AM)


If you aren't using it with Krark's Thumb, you're doing it wrong.
Posted By: Earthdawn (6/18/2013 3:39:03 AM)


*reads card*

Hey look, Wizards created a creature for people who like to argue about calculus.

*reads comments*

Hey look, it worked! :)

They should make a whole series of these cards, don't you think?
Posted By: Salient (1/18/2014 5:14:57 PM)


Because how many cards can say that they have the potential to enter the battlefield as a 100/100 without any outside assistance.
Posted By: N03y3D33R (3/12/2014 4:10:48 PM)


Gatherer works better in the Companion app!