Proliferate. Proliferate. Proliferate. Proliferate.

Boom.
Posted By:
BegleOne
(10/3/2010 10:22:14 PM)

Some days you just can't get rid of a bomb.
Posted By:
Insectile
(3/21/2011 8:27:01 PM)

This card is very fun, and I enjoy playing it alot. Just thought I would provide some stats about this card.

These are the natural probabilites of getting 5 counters on turn 7 and up, barring of course Krark's Thumb or Paradox Hazes, etc.

After getting a turn two Goblin Bomb:

7: 3% 8: 1.6% 9: 5.5& 10: 3% 11: 7% 12:4.4%

These probabilities follow from a restricted Pascal's Triangle. It took me awhile but I was able to realize that the pattern is sort of relfected about the middle.

The result is this

1

1 1

2 1 1

3 3 1 1

6 4 4 1 1

10 10 5 5 1 1

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but this should be the pattern. It would be intersesting to see what the maximum probability is, if allowed to take infinite turns. Also the probability utilizing the Krark's Thumb, Paradox Haze, or Doubling Season would also be fun.
Posted By:
RiverWolf13
(1/18/2010 9:01:49 PM)

Krark's thumb and this equals awesome.
Posted By:
CatsAreCthala
(1/15/2010 9:59:38 PM)

@RiverWolf3

If you play it on turn 2, it will be at least turn 8 before you can use the ability as you will play it on 2, and the ability will first activate on turn 3.

Assuming a fair coin, you have an equal chance to land on either heads or tails. Thus, at each step, you can have 2 possibilities, giving us a binary branching pattern. However, the only path that will lead us to max capacity at turn 8 is 5 successes. At that point, there are 2^5 possibilities, meaning there are 32 other things that can happen. Your probability at turn 8 of having all 5 counters is 1/32. Decent chance, but I wouldn't bet my deck on it.

Also, there's some green card that doubles the number of counters on target permanent, or at least I could have sworn I saw it somewhere. If you have that, then getting 3 at any time would be all you need (with a 1/8 chance).
Posted By:
DeathDark
(4/3/2010 1:23:37 PM)

The only obstacle to proliferate is getting it started. It doesn't use Charge Counters, so Power Conduit doesn't work... But all you have to do is get one right. Then, you use a few Thrummingbirds or Contagion Engines or something, and instawin.

Unless your opponent plays lifegain. But who plays that?

(Shut up, Felidar Sovereign)
Posted By:
NARFNra
(12/25/2010 4:26:19 AM)

@DeathDark - with unlimited turns, wouldn't your probability be 100%? Eventually it'll go off unless it's removed.
Posted By:
djflo
(3/30/2011 10:56:32 PM)

This is a little bit trickier to calculate than pure binary distribution. The reson being that if you lose the first toss then you can still win with next five as there was no fuse counter to remove.

So to get the boom on turn seven you have 1/32 probabilty and the same is for turn eight if you lost the first toss but won the next five (which means we have 1/64 chance for turn 8 boom). For turn 9 boom you need one lost toss on turn 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 while all others are won, so you have 5 times 1/128 which is 5/128 chance to get boom on turn 9. Cu-mulatively this means that you have 11/128 chance to inflict 20 damage before turn 10.
Posted By:
tavaritz
(7/15/2011 7:45:08 AM)

@djflo

Actually no, it would never be able to reach 100% probability with ulimited turns. The probability of getting it at some point during an ulimited amount of turns would be as close to 100% as possible, but not exactly 100%, that would never be possible for the probability to reach, as you can never force the coin flip to flip your way :P

For an infinity it could flip against you, and keep on doing that, you could never predict if it were ever going to flip the other way, but the probability for that goes up and up each flip, but would never be able to reach 100% :D
Posted By:
Tinno
(4/15/2012 1:51:30 PM)

Giant Fan+ Dark Depths+ this.
Posted By:
pedrodyl
(1/13/2013 9:58:53 PM)